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Final estimates:

What’s #1? Clint Eastwood’s Baseball Film? Or Jennifer Lawrence’s Horror House? Or Jake Gyllenhaal’s Cop Drama?

This is one of those weekends which can only be described as box office hell. Because the three top pics are neck-and-neck for #1 this weekend. Final film order may come down to Sunday late shows on the West Coast. All three newcomers are low- to medium-budget movies, but none opened to more than $14M this weekend. And total filmgoing likely won’t add up to a lot more than $87M, which is down a big -20% from last year. “It’s a close race to mediocrity with no winners,” one movie exec snarked.

Warner Bros is claiming Clint Eastwood’s baseball father-daughter melodrama Trouble With The Curve (3,212 theaters) is #1 this weekend. Some have #1 this weekend Relativity’s run of the mill horror flick, House At The End Of The Street (3,083 theaters) which went up +17%-+20% from Friday to Saturday because its star Jennifer Lawrence has stayed warm at the box office. Also in the mix for #1 is Open Road’s handheld-camera End Of Watch (2,730 theaters). The small distributor was even getting congratulatory calls from competitors Friday after “extremely strong” West Coast late show numbers. It, too, went up from Friday to Saturday – +13%-+15%.

1? Trouble With The Curve (Warner Bros) NEW [3,212 Runs] PG13
Friday $4.1M, Saturday $5.5M, Sunday $3.6M, Weekend $13.2M

1? House At The End Of The Street (Relativity) NEW [3,083 Runs] PG13
Friday $4.6M, Saturday $5.4M, Sunday $3.2M, Weekend $13.2M

1? End Of Watch (Open Road) NEW [2,730 Runs] R
Friday $4.6M, Saturday $5.3M, Sunday $3.3M, Weekend $13.2M

I can't remember the last time this happened. "Trouble with the Curve" was #1 on Saturday and Sunday which gives me hope (and I hope WB isn't lying.)

flummels wrote:

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They said last weekends box office was the worse in history so obviously not a good time right now for movies. Does it really matter anyways since this is really a Clint Eastwood movie. It's not like if the movie fails it's Justin's fault. Justin does well internationally so hopefully that will help in the long run.

Everyone seems to be blaming the underperformance of the movie on Clint's RNC speech and on Warner Bros for targeting older audiences, despite having Justin and Amy in the movie. I don't think anyone will blame it on Justin since his last five movies were box office smashes and grossed 1 billion worldwide combined.

Movies about baseball usually don't do well internationally. The highest-grossing baseball movies of all-time:

#1 A League of Their Own $25 million internationally / 19% of total gross
#2 Moneyball $35 million internationally / 31% of total gross
#3 The Rookie $5 million internationally / 6% of total gross
#4 Field of Dreams $20 million internationally / 24% of total gross
#5 The Benchwarmers $5 million internationally / 8% of total gross
#6 Rookie of the Year $3 million internationally / 5% of total gross

The other 4 movies in the top 10 grossed under half a million outside the US.

Not including limited releases, this is his second-worst opening for a movie after "Black Snake Moan."

Boxoffice.com reported the total budget for the movie was $60 million (both production and marketing.) A $35 million marketing budget sounds awfully high. I saw the trailer in front of "The Campaign," some billboards and bus ads, but there really wasn't much promo. Justin, Amy, and Clint combined did only six televised interviews to promote the movie (and Amy was cross-promoting "The Master.")

The predictions couldn’t have been more off. I remember “House at the End of the Street” was initially the favorite and expected to open with nearly $25 million.

DANIELA wrote:

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I think you care more about how his movie does than Justin himself

I am actually taking an internship at a production company owned by Lionsgate, so I regularly follow the box office charts anyway, and I happen to love Justin (I obviously want his movies to do well.)