Senate Swing Votes Needed for NY Gay Marriage Win
A handful of undecided or movable Senators will decide marriage equality by June 22. Who are they? Here's a scorecard.
By Trenton Straube
Sen. Tom Duane (center) is sponsoring the marriage equality bill.
The clock is ticking, the pressure's building, but marriage equality remains stalled in the New York Senate. As expected, the Assembly passed Gov. David Paterson's marriage equality bill this week, so the future of marriage equality now rests with a handful of lawmakers. About 20 Senators-both Republicans and Democrats though mostly from Long Island and Queens-are on record as undecided on the topic or are viewed by marriage advocates as movable despite their voiced opposition. They are the votes to vie for.
But the clock is ticking. The current legislative session ends June 22. If gay marriage doesn't pass by then, it'll likely be tabled for the next two years. (This is because the current Senate makeup won't change until after the 2010 elections-unless a slew of lawmakers resign, switch positions or, perhaps just as likely, drop dead.)
But right now, the numbers are too close to call.
The Democrats have a slim majority: 32 out of 62 seats. Six Dems are on record against the bill. Two of those are thought to be highly movable.
Sen. Tom Duane sponsors the marriage measure, which has 18 additional cosponsors. Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith is not one of them, but he does back marriage equality. However, Smith said he won't bring the bill to a floor vote unless it's guaranteed to pass. That means at least 12 more votes must be secured for the bill to pass go.
Who are these fence-sitting Senators and movable negatives? For a complete list, see our sidebar (below). But let's highlight a few battleground districts.
Nine Senators represent the former GOP stronghold of Long Island (Craig Johnson and Brian Foley are the only two Democrats; Johnson is a marriage cosponsor; Foley is an important undecided vote). However, the residents of Suffolk and Nassau counties have been polling consistently more liberal. For GOP lawmakers who don't want to appear out of touch-especially in the 2010 re-elections-a vote for marriage could be just the ticket.
In fact, the Daily News' Liz Benjamin reported that LGBT advocacy group Empire State Pride Agenda commissioned polling in four of the GOP districts-those of John Flanagan, Charles Fuschillo Jr., Kemp Hannon and Kenneth LaValle, all undecided on marriage equality. (The remaining republicans are Carl Marcellino and Minority Leader Dean Skelos).
"Now that a majority [of voters] on Long Island are for same sex marriage, the Republican state senators have to be sensitive to that issue,"
said Dan Pinello, professor of government at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and author of "Gay Rights and American Law." Pinello, who also
lives on Long Island, noted another reason these lawmakers are vulnerable: "They no longer have the capacity, now that they're in the minority, to
dole out the money that they did to their constituents when they were in control of the chamber
member items."
Another battleground taking shape is Queens, where Democrats Shirley Huntley, George Onorato, Joseph Addabbo, Jr. and Hiram Monserrate are either undecided or movable. Though the districts have conservative and religious constituents, they have been leaning more liberal. Addabbo, for example, recently replaced longtime conservative Republican Sen. Serphim Maltese, one of the key races in flipping the Senate to the Democratic majority this past fall.
Of course, gay marriage support can't be distilled into two specific regions. The subject must be examined independently in respect to each district and its constituents.
Finally, much has been said about the marriage wins in Iowa, Vermont and Maine fueling the battle in the Empire State. "That victory in Vermont was very import," said Sen. Duane. "The governor there doesn't support marriage equality, but the bipartisan legislature overrode the veto."
Then he points to another, perhaps overlooked, dynamic. "New York shares a border with Vermont. We share radio stations, television stations, commerce, newspapers." Maybe that will influence Vermont's neighboring New York Senate district, which is represented by Republican Elizabeth Little. So far, she's on record against marriage equality. But if the Assembly offers any lessons-think GOP Assemblywoman Theresa Sayward, who voted for marriage in 2007 and ran unchallenged last year-then Sen. Little is movable too.
SENATE SWINGERS
The math might change daily, but two numbers are definite. The Senate's marriage equality bill has 20 votes (including Majority Leader Malcolm Smith, sponsor Tom Duane and 18 cosponsors). And at least 12 more must be secured by the session's end, June 22. These lawmakers are considered possible swing votes and are the ones to lobby. Contact information is on nysenate.gov.
'No" votes, but movable
Shirley Huntley (D)*
Elizabeth Little (R)
George Onorato (D)*
William Strachowski (D)*
David Valesky (D)*
Undecided on Long Island
John Flanagan (R)*
Brian Foley (D)*
Charles Fuschille, Jr. (R)
Kemp Hannon (R)*
Kenneth LaValle (R)*
Carl Marcellino (R)
Undecided/Unknown
Joseph Addabbo, Jr (D)*
James Alesi (R)*
Ruth Hassell-Thompson (D)*
Vincent Leibell (R)
Hiram Monserrate (D)
Thomas Morahan (R)*
Stephen Saland (R)
John Sampson (D)
